Monday, November 8, 2010

The Progressives: A Further Fiction

Just playing around with the Uniform Swin model Excel file that you can download at the Paulitics blog.

I decided to try using the current projection at ThreeHundredEight, which is to say the current regional voting estimates. The Paulitics model crunches the numbers differently than ThreeHundredEight does, though, since the same numbers give pretty different results. The Paulitics model gives us:
  • Conservatives: 129
  • Liberals: 88
  • NDP: 36
  • Bloc Québécois: 52
  • Green: 0
  • Others: 3
It's a bit odd to see three 'others' seats, and I guess it's a problem with the model that it lumps all 'others' data together. Still, interesting numbers, that produce the same kind of result as any other poll or poll ananlysis out there: Conservative minority.

But that's just the starting point. I then decided to look at the numbers for my 'progressives' fiction, wherein the NDP, the Greens and the Bloc united, without shedding any support. In other words, I combined the current vote for the NDP and Green Parties, putting the combined total into the NDP box, for all of Canada except Québec, where I combined the total of the three and put that total in the BQ box. What did that give us?
  • Conservatives: 113
  • 'Progressives': 110
  • Liberals: 82
  • Others: 3
Interesting numbers. And interesting in that 'Progressive' gains would come pretty much completely at the expense of the Conservatives - the Liberals would stay more or less constant. The regional seat-by-seat breakdown would be as follows:
  • BC: Prog 15, CPC 14, Libs 7
  • Alberta: CPC 25, Prog 2, Other 1
  • Prairies: CPC 20, Prog 5, Libs 3
  • Ontario: CPC: 44, Libs 41, Prog 21
  • Québec: Prog 61, Libs 12, CPC 1, Other 1
  • Atlantic: Libs 18, CPC 9, Prog 4, Other 1
  • North: Prog 2, Libs 1
I don't know how reliable these numbers are, but they're intriguing. BC, where the Greens are not an insignificant party, gets its numbers rearranged dramatically. Much of the rest of the country doesn't, however. I'm surprised to see the 'Progressives' so low in Atlantic Canada, for example.

This particular parliament would be pretty darn unworkable, wouldn't it? Or rather it would put a lot of power into the hands of the Liberals. It actually resembles the UK political dynamic.

But let's take it further: let's imagie that a united Progressive party would be enough to win over one in ten current CPC supporters and one in five current Liberal supporters. What then?

Well, we still wouldn't be in majority territory. There might be something off about my calculations, but now I get:
  • BC: Prog 22, CPC 10, Libs 4
  • Alberta: CPC 25, Prog 2, Other 1
  • Prairies: CPC 17, Prog 9, Libs 2
  • Ontario: CPC 46, Libs 30, Prog 30
  • Québec: Prog 65, Libs 8, CPC 1, Other 1
  • Atlantic: Libs 13, CPC 10, Prog 8, Other 1
  • North: Prog 2, Libs 1
For a grand total of:

  • Progressives: 138
  • Conservatives: 109
  • Liberals: 58
  • Other: 3
A minority, but a significantly stronger minority than the one we currently have. Interesting that my 'step one' ate away at the Conservatives more than the Liberals but that my 'step two' has decimated the Liberals. Highly interesting (though not implausible) that my 'step two' actually increases the Conservatives' seats in Ontario. And interesting that despite all this number crunching (combining three parties and taking a significant chunk from the remaining two), the Progressives not only don't get a majority nationwide but they also lag far behind everywhere except BC and Québec.

Strange numbers. Expect me to use the Paulitics model for other stuff too.